The Official Medtipster Blog

www.Medtipster.com Source: Wall Street Journal – Katherine Hobson, 12.12.11

We’ve written about some of the most common consumer questions about the newly launched generic version of Pfizer’s cholesterol-lowering Lipitor.

One remaining question is how much money will be saved from the generic iterations of the name-brand blockbuster — the U.S. sales of which were $7.8 billion in the year ended Sept. 30, according to IMS Health.

A group of researchers takes a stab at that issue in a perspective piece published online by the New England Journal of Medicine. Their conclusion: “the overall cost savings from the availability of generic atorvastatin are projected to reach $4.5 billion annually by 2014, equivalent to 23% of total expenditures on statins in that year.” (The aging population could mean another $30 million of cost savings annually by 2014, they note.)

To make their calculations, they looked at what happened after Merck’s Zocor lost patent protection in 2006, and also considered how the aging of the population would drive future demand for statin drugs. They predict that generic atorvastatin will “dominate the statin market as a result of patients’ switching to it from simvastatin [generic Zocor] and from [AstraZeneca’s] Crestor, and it will have an estimated market share of 44% by 3 years after market entry.”

The researchers, from institutions including the Western University of Health Sciences and Yale University, project that the price of generic atorvastatin will be 82% of the pre-generic Lipitor at the time of market entry and 49% of the brand-name after the first six months.

However, these projections come with an asterisk: they “estimate what would happen with the rapid availability and timely uptake of generic atorvastatin.” The researchers say “aggressive business tactics” used by Pfizer to keep people using name-brand Lipitor, including deals with pharmacy-benefit managers and discounts to patients, may prevent switches to the generic.

“In order to capitalize on this opportunity for cost savings from the expiration of Lipitor’s patent, there must be a rapid, concerted effort by many players in the health-care system to facilitate awareness of and access to the generic,” they write.